The new federal fiscal year begins on October 1. As the Immigration and Nationality Act (INA) allocates immigrant visa numbers on an annual basis, the beginning of the fiscal year is normally met with anticipation, as it means that the supply of immigrant visa numbers is replenished, bringing movement in the Monthly Visa Bulletin and green cards to long-waiting applicants.
The just-issued Visa Bulletin for October 2023 is mostly disappointing. The Final Action cut-off dates for the Family-based Preference categories did not move, with the exception of the FB-2A (spouses/children of LPR’s) which moved forward 13 months. As for the Employment-based Preference categories, the Final Action cut-off dates showed some forward progress, with the Worldwide EB-1 showing as “current”, the EB-2 advancing by just one week, the EB-3 advancing by 19 months and the EB-4 (for religious workers and other special immigrants) advancing by just four months.
Of course, on account of “per country ceilings”, employment-based cases from China and India are especially problematic. With the huge disparity between high demand and low supply resulting in long years of waiting, EB-eligible immigrants from China and India are disproportionately impacted. The October Visa Bulletin did see a five-year jump forward in the Indian EB-1, from January 2012 to January 2017. But, not surprisingly, the EB-2 and EB-3 continue to lag behind, with eligible immigrants and their families backlogged to January 2012 for the EB-2 and May 2012 for the EB-3.
The monthly Visa Bulletin also includes a separate chart called the Date for Filing chart. The Date for Filing chart is used by USCIS to regulate the flow of applications for adjustment of status. On a monthly basis, USCIS notifies eligible immigrants whether to reference the cut-off dates in the Final Action chart, or the cut-off dates in the Date for Filing chart. When the Date for Filing chart is in effect, then eligible immigrants must file I-485’s based on the cut-off dates in the alternate chart.
The latest Visa Bulletin indicates that the Date for Filing chart is in effect. This represents meaningful good news and some small relief for some eligible immigrants, but ongoing disappointment for EB-eligible immigrants from India. EB-eligible immigrants from China have the most immediate benefit, with EB-1 filing dates advancing by two months, EB-2 filing dates advancing by three months and EB-3 filing dates advancing by two months.
The Visa Bulletin is confusing and unpredictable. Sometimes the Final Action Dates leap forward by months; at other times they don’t move at all. The dates can even go back in time; this is called retrogression. Efforts to forecast movement in the Visa Bulletin can be futile. The best information available comes from the inventory of pending cases published by USCIS.
Even with this information, the Visa Bulletin remains difficult to decipher or predict. For now, until Congress decides to increase the annual allocation of Immigrant Visa numbers, or regulations are implemented to take the spouses and children out of the count or to change the per-country ceiling, or USCIS uses the Date for Filing chart to open the process to additional filings, the situation will remain unchanged – to the great detriment of U.S. employers, U.S. families and eligible immigrants.
For additional information on the operation of the Immigrant Numeric Control System, click here. For questions or additional information on the monthly Visa Bulletin, contact us.